RESEARCH

ENTREPRENEURIAL AND INNOVATION DECISION-MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTY

My main research focus as an academic scholar is on strategic decision-making under uncertainty in entrepreneurial and innovation-related settings. I am interested in studying how entrepreneurs make decisions and how cognitive biases such as overconfidence impact decision-making processes and the way uncertainty is perceived.

In my dissertation, I investigate how the application of a "theory-based" or "scientific" approach to decision-making impacts entrepreneurs' decision processes and the subsequent business outcomes. To do so, I leverage on data from different randomized field experiments, conducted both in developed and developing countries.

Published papers:
As a rule, in all papers, authors are listed in alphabetical order

• Agarwal, R., Bacco, F., Camuffo, A., Coali, A., Gambardella, A., Msangi, H., Sonka, S., Temu, A., Waized, B. and Wormald, A. (2024) Does a theory of value add value? Evidence from a randomized control trial with Tanzanian entrepreneurs. Organization Science
  Link tbd

• Coali, A., Gambardella, A. and Novelli, E. (2024). Scientific decision-making, project selection and longer term outcomes. Research Policy
  Link (open access): 

• Coali, A., Novelli, E., Sirigiri, A., and Spina, C. (2024). A scientific approach to decision-making: key tools and design principles.  Journal of Business Venturing Design
  Link (open access): 

Submitted papers:

• Bacco, F. and Coali, A. Title omitted for peer-review
  Rej&R @Strategic Management Journal

• Bacco, F., Coali, A. and Wormald, A. Title omitted for peer-review.
  1st round R&R @Strategic Management Journal

Advanced manuscripts:

• Altomonte, C., Coali, A. and Conte, M. Entrepreneurial ecosystems and uncertainty: the heterogeneous impacts of exogenous shocks
  In preparation for submission

• Coali, A. and Spina, C. Updating strategy and beliefs: experimental evidence on the scientific approach to decision-making
  In preparation for submission to Strategic Entrepreneurship Journal

Work in progress:
Tentative titles

• Motivations, ambitions and entrepreneurial performance: evidence from five RCTs

• Decision-making in innovative ventures: a multiple case-study

• The complementarity between artificial intelligence and theories: a RCT with managers

OTHER RESEARCH

During my master and research activity at the European Investment Bank, I had the opportunity to do research on topics related to firm productivity and digitalization, which I consider as my secondary stream of research. Particularly, I am keen to investigate the impact of artificial intelligence and digital technologies on firm-level outcomes and processes, especially when it comes to strategic outcomes and decision-making. 

I conducted research under the EU-backed project MICROPROD (Horizon 2020) and I am currently cooperating with the economics department at the European Investment Bank.

Working papers and other publications: 

• Altomonte C., Coali, A. and Ottaviano, G.. (2020). EU recovery plans should fund the COVID-19 battles to come; not be used to nurse old wounds. Bruegel Blog Post. Available here.

• Altomonte, C. and Coali, A. (2019). Employment, productivity and import shock: evidence from the European manufacturing industry. MICROPROD Working Paper. Available here.

• Brutscher, P.B., Coali, A., Delanote J. & Harasztosi P.  (2020).  EIB Group survey on investment and investment finance – A Technical Note on Data Quality. EIB Working Paper 2020/09. (available here)

• European Investment Bank – Investment report 2018 (Chapter 8 on Digitalization and Innovation) (November 2018)

• European Investment Bank - Investment report 2023 (Contributor to Chapter 5)

• Assolombarda-Confindustria. “Le performance delle imprese Europee: un’analisi benchmark” (The performances of European firms: a benchmark analysis) (October 2017)